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pspforecast

Shellfish toxicity (PSP) forecast serving package

For the current 2026 Maine PSP predictions, click here

For past season results, check out this shiny application

Requirements

Installation

remotes::install_github("BigelowLab/pspforecast")

Reading the forecast database

Variables:

  • version - the version/configuration of the model used to make the prediction

  • ensemble_n - number of ensemble members used to generate prediction

  • location - the sampling station the forecast is for

  • date - the date the forecast was made on

  • name - site name

  • lat - latitude

  • lon - longitude

  • class_bins - the bins used to classify shellfish total toxicity (i.e. 0: 0-10, 1: 10-30, 2: 30-80, 3: >80)

  • forecast_date - the date the forecast is valid for (i.e. one week ahead of when it was made)

  • predicted_class - the predicted classification at the location listed on the forecast_date (in this case 0-3)

  • p_0 - class 0 probability

  • p_1 - class 1 probability

  • p_2 - class 2 probability

  • p_3 - class 3 probability

  • p3_sd - class 3 probability standard deviation

  • p_3_min - class 3 minimum probability (from ensemble run)

  • p_3_max - class 3 maximum probability (from ensemble run)

  • predicted_class - the predicted classification

Metrics:

  • tp - The model predicted class 3 and the following week’s measurement was class 3
  • fp - The model predicted class 3 and the following week’s measurement was not class 3
  • tn - The model predicted class 0,1,2 and the following week’s measurement was in class 0,1,2
  • fn - The model predicted class 0,1,2 and the following week’s measurement was class 3
  • accuracy - Measure of how many correct classifications were predicted
  • cl_accuracy - Considering predictions are those that correctly predicted toxicity above or below the closure limit or not
  • precision - TP/(TP+FP)
  • sensitivity - TP/(TP+FN)
  • specificity - TN/(TN+FP)
  • f_1 - (2TP)/(2TP-FP+FN)

Overall Results (2021-2025 seasons combined)

Predictions evaluated:

## [1] 2634

Metrics:

## # A tibble: 1 × 11
##      tp    fp    tn    fn cl_accuracy accuracy brier   f_1 precision sensitivity specificity
##   <int> <int> <int> <int>       <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>       <dbl>
## 1    69    65  2449    51       0.956    0.806 0.028 0.543     0.515       0.575       0.974

2026 (current season) Results

Predictions evaluated

## [1] 555

Metrics

## # A tibble: 1 × 11
##      tp    fp    tn    fn cl_accuracy accuracy brier   f_1 precision sensitivity specificity
##   <int> <int> <int> <int>       <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>       <dbl>
## 1    13    10   521    11       0.962    0.614 0.026 0.553     0.565       0.542       0.981

Last Updated

## [1] "2026-08-06"