From ea9686c050cf5ee6d60470aa13a723ce6bbf58b0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Shi Hu <findhushi@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2020 09:35:37 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] init commit

---
 Classifiers/survival_analysis.py | 103 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 103 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 Classifiers/survival_analysis.py

diff --git a/Classifiers/survival_analysis.py b/Classifiers/survival_analysis.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2aeff8b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/Classifiers/survival_analysis.py
@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+'''
+    To run this script, we first need to modify the code as follows (updated Apr 23, 2020)
+    * in select_variables function of covid19_ICU_util.py, add this line: 
+          variables_to_include += ['hospital'] 
+      below 
+          variables_to_include += ['Record Id']
+
+    * comment out the 3 lines below in select_x_y of covid19_ICU_util.py:
+          outcome_name = 'Combined outcome'
+          y = pd.concat([y1, y2, y3], axis=1)
+          return x, y, outcome_name
+      and replace them with:
+          outcome_name = 'y2'
+          y = pd.concat([y2, is_at_icu], axis=1)
+          return x, y, outcome_name
+
+    * add these 2 lines after the call to prepare_for_learning in covid19_ICU_admission.py:
+          x.to_excel('features.xlsx')
+          y.to_excel('outcomes.xlsx')
+
+    * run covid19_ICU_admission.py to generate the above 2 xlsx files
+'''
+
+import matplotlib
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+from lifelines import *
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+
+
+
+
+def simple_estimates(outcomes):
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 3, figsize=(20, 15))
+    matplotlib.rcParams.update({'font.size': 16})
+
+    outcomes = outcomes.dropna()
+    outcomes = outcomes[outcomes['duration_mortality'] > 0]
+
+    T = outcomes['duration_mortality']
+    E = outcomes['event_mortality']
+
+    kmf = KaplanMeierFitter().fit(T, E, label='KaplanMeierFitter')
+    wbf = WeibullFitter().fit(T, E, label='WeibullFitter')
+    exf = ExponentialFitter().fit(T, E, label='ExponentalFitter')
+    lnf = LogNormalFitter().fit(T, E, label='LogNormalFitter')
+    llf = LogLogisticFitter().fit(T, E, label='LogLogisticFitter')
+    pwf = PiecewiseExponentialFitter([40, 60]).fit(T, E, label='PiecewiseExponentialFitter')
+    gg = GeneralizedGammaFitter().fit(T, E, label='GeneralizedGammaFitter')
+    spf = SplineFitter([6, 20, 40, 75]).fit(T, E, label='SplineFitter')
+
+    wbf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[0][0])
+    exf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[0][1])
+    lnf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[0][2])
+    kmf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[1][0])
+    llf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[1][1])
+    pwf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[1][2])
+    gg.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[2][0])
+    spf.plot_survival_function(ax=axes[2][1])
+
+
+    plt.savefig('plots/simple_estimate.png')
+
+
+def cox_ph(features, outcomes, use_all=True):
+    result = pd.concat([features, outcomes], axis=1)
+    result = result.dropna()
+    result = result.drop(columns=['microbiology_worker'])
+    result = result.drop(columns=['days_at_icu']) # NOTE this is for selecting those who went to ICU and who didn't (currently not used)
+
+    if use_all:
+        train_set = result.drop(columns=['hospital', 'aids_hiv']) # NOTE aids_hiv is an outlier for plotting coefs
+
+        cph = CoxPHFitter()
+        cph.fit(train_set, duration_col='duration_mortality', event_col='event_mortality', show_progress=True, step_size=0.1)
+
+        cph.print_summary()
+
+        fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(40, 30))
+        cph.plot()
+        plt.savefig('plots/coef.png')
+    else:
+        test_hospital = 'MUMC' # this can be MUMC, Zuyderland, or AUMC - AMC
+        train_set = result[result['hospital'] != test_hospital]
+        test_set = result[result['hospital'] == test_hospital]
+
+        train_set = train_set.drop(columns=['hospital'])
+        test_set = test_set.drop(columns=['hospital'])
+
+        cph = CoxPHFitter()
+        cph.fit(train_set, duration_col='duration_mortality', event_col='event_mortality', show_progress=True, step_size=0.1)
+
+        print('with and without ICU')
+        print('test hospital:', test_hospital)
+        print('test c-index', cph.score(test_set, scoring_method="concordance_index"))
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    features = pd.read_excel('../features.xlsx', index_col=0)
+    outcomes = pd.read_excel('../outcomes.xlsx', index_col=0)
+
+    #simple_estimates(outcomes)
+
+    cox_ph(features, outcomes, False)