From a58c5582dc6c8e6fd1bc6617ecaa52caa819f567 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Markus Voelter Date: Fri, 8 Sep 2017 09:31:27 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] updated nukes --- open/computationalSocialScience.md | 30 ++++ open/nuclearWeapons.md | 253 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ open/nuclearWeapons.txt | 182 --------------------- 3 files changed, 283 insertions(+), 182 deletions(-) create mode 100644 open/computationalSocialScience.md create mode 100644 open/nuclearWeapons.md delete mode 100644 open/nuclearWeapons.txt diff --git a/open/computationalSocialScience.md b/open/computationalSocialScience.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c985b69 --- /dev/null +++ b/open/computationalSocialScience.md @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +Wikipedia +------------------- +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_social_science + + +Papers +------------------- +https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10588-008-9042-2 +http://computationalsocialscience.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/CSSSA_2015_submission_3.pdf +https://economics.mit.edu/files/8753 + + + +ANalyse von Daten +Simulation von Systemen (interessanter) + +Hochschulen: +------------------- +https://www.gesis.org/forschung/angewandte-informatik/computational-social-science/ +https://www.uni-bamberg.de/ma-politik/schwerpunkte/computational-social-sciences/ +https://www.hfp.tum.de/professuren/professur-fuer-computational-social-science-and-big-data/ +https://www.hfp.tum.de/professuren/professur-fuer-policy-analysis/ + +Konferenzen +------------------- +https://ic2s2.org/2017/elements/accepted_talks.html +https://ic2s2.org/2017/elements/accepted_posters.html +https://ic2s2.org/2017/ +http://summerschool.computationalsocialscience.eu/ +http://symposium.computationalsocialscience.eu/ \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/open/nuclearWeapons.md b/open/nuclearWeapons.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b8fade8 --- /dev/null +++ b/open/nuclearWeapons.md @@ -0,0 +1,253 @@ +Basics of Physics +------------------------------------------- +* A few of the basics about atomic structure +* E=mc2 Energy and Mass, Binding Energy +* Nuclear Fission vs Fusion +* Critical mass +* Isotopes + +* Atomic Bomb vs. H-Bomb + +* What are the destructive effects? + - Heat + - pressure + - EMP - how vunerable would modern electronics be to the EMP? + - radiation - Would you say radiation (and long term area denial) is a side-effect + and that the military uses those weapons despite them, not because? + +* What kind of damage is expected from different yields? Some examples - + radius of damages from a small yield explosion and a large yield + explosion. + +The development of the A-Bomb +------------------------------------------ +* Context: the Manhattan Project + +* Bomb was before nuclear power plants! + +* Basic Principle: critical mass must be assembled for detonation + - gun method: propel core into hollow shell + - implosion method: compression using "explosive lenses". + - Explain details about both. + - Trade-offs? + +* Manhattan Project built both, right? + +* Plutonium Bombs vs. Uranium Bombs + - Can both be used with both fuels (uranium, plutonium) + +* Technical/Engineering Milestones in the dev of the US Bomb + ... and key people + +* Who lay the theoretical basics so they knew it was possible? + Einstein, right? + +* Yield compared to today? + + + + +H-Bombs +------------------------------------------ +* Basic Principle + - Staging: Fission triggers fusion + - Fusion triggers (one or more) stages of fission or fusion + - Initial Fission is always implosion; no gun. + +* Structure of the H Bomb + - incl. the substructure of the secondary + - Teller-Ulam Design? + . Reflective Shell, reflects Xrays and gamma rays + . heat and compress fusion fuel. + . transfer via radiation implosion; 73 million bar pressure! + . foam plasma pressure + . tamper-pusher ablation (much higher pressures; most likely used) + - Role of the Tamper, heat difference. + - Fusion creates high-speed neutrons that can then trigger fission in + non-enriched materials such as depleted uranium (up to 50%) + - Staging leads to effectively unlimited sized bombs -> limits in delivery + - Fusion does not create fission products; but the fission stages do. + - Spark Plug + - Interstage: "focus" four results of primary onto the secondary + 1) expanding hot gases from high explosive charges that implode the primary; + 2) superheated plasma that was originally the bomb's fissile material and its tamper; + 3) the electromagnetic radiation; and + 4) the neutrons from the primary's nuclear detonation. + Seems to to be the key to the design. Secret! + Which aspects are known? + +* Why use a tertiary instead of just a bigger secondary? + +* majority of current Teller–Ulam are fission-fusion-fission weapon + +* What are the engineering challenges? + . efficiency + . size/weight + . reliability + . stablity/storage + - How have bombs evolved over the decades? + - Should we talk about some? B61, B83? + What are the yields, TNT equivalent + +* Variable yield weapons. + - How is it achieved? + . injecting deuterium/tritium gas + . timing/use of external neutron initiators + . shutting down the secondary + - Doesn't this waste fuel? + +* Safety Mechanisms + - how is accidental activation avoided? + - it did work over the years, right? No explosions :-) + + +Other kinds of weapons, briefly +------------------------------------------------- + +* Boosted fission weapon +* Neutron bomb +* Radiological weapon +* Antimatter weapon +* "Dirty Bomb" + + +Delivery Systems +------------------------------------------------- + +* Delivery mechamisms, challenges involved in those + - ICBM - silos + - SRBM - subs + - Bombers: Bombs, Cruise Missiles + - MIRVs + +* Tactical NWs (like: Davy Crockett) seem to be a rather odd idea. + +* Interplay with warhead design + - Size/weight reduction + - guidance and accuracy vs. power of the bomb + +* Discuss a few milestone warheads, maybe in use today? + +* Are the warheads different for the different delivery mechanisms? + +* Readiness, time to launch + + +Creating the Fuel +------------------------------------------------- + +* What is Weapons grade, why do we need "purer" stuff there? + +* Refinement, Purification, Centrifuges + +* Which other rare elements are needed in addition to Plutonium and/or Uranium? + + + +Testing, Design and Maintenance +-------------------------------------------------- +* How do you test? + - above the ground + - under the ground (challenge of transposing the results) + - monitoring, test -> CTBT episode + +* Effects of atmospheric nuclear testing on the environment/climate. + +* How many tests over history? + +* Now that testing is banned, how are NW developed and evaluated? + - Simulate: impact of modern computing on from-scratch development + - How is yield calculated without testing? + - What other parameters are interesting in addition to yield? + How do you characterize a NW? + +* Stockpile maintenance + - What is being done to maintain the stockpile? + - How does decay affect reliabilty and safe storage? + - I seem to know that the NIF has a role there. + +* Are we still developing new NW today? + Seems to me the hight of the dev was 1945 to 1980s? + Not much happened since then. Correct? + + + +History and Politics +------------------------------------------------- +* Permanent readiness (Bombers with weapons in the air) + +* (Almost) Accidents, Losses of Weapons + There was a B-52 above Spain .... + +* Size and structure of the stockpile in the cold war and today + +* Which countries have NW? + - US + - Russia + - French + - British + - Chinese + - Israel + - India + - Pakistan + - others? + +* Why do countries want the bomb? Can't use it, realistically!? + +* Is there an agreement among historians whether "it was worth it" to + have NW in the cold war? + +* What do we think North Korea has today? + - Is the knowledge to build NW available? + - What are the engineering challenges that are not public knowledge? + - Or is it really about the raw materials and their refinement process? + +* How long would it take a developed country to build a nuke + if they decided to do so? + - starting from unclassified, available scientific data, + - no financial constraints) + - Cost and time? + + + + + +================================================== + +http://www.nonproliferation.org/experts/jeffrey-lewis/ +http://www.miis.edu/academics/faculty/FDalnokiVeress/node/23025 +http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/about-me/ +http://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/people/siegfried_s_hecker + +https://armscontrolcenter.org/about/meet-our-experts/#PCoyle +https://www.boozallen.com +CTBT fragen +http://www.ucsusa.org/ +https://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/nuclear-weapons +http://www.aerospace.illinois.edu/nuclear-weapons-expert-bruce-goodwin-present-stillwell-memorial-lecture +https://cgsr.llnl.gov/about/fellows/bruce-goodwin + + +Contributors: +* Patrick Hosford +* Daniel Merrlin Rüscher +* Christopher Fredette +* Sebastian Knapp +* Benn Britton +* Bernd Hart +* MalteJ + + + + + +Basics: +* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon +* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design +* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon + +Relates to episodes: +* http://omegataupodcast.net/185-nuclear-test-monitoring-and-the-ctbt/ +* http://omegataupodcast.net/248-dew-sage-and-the-f-106-delta-dart/ +* http://omegataupodcast.net/258-the-history-and-technology-of-spy-satellites/ + diff --git a/open/nuclearWeapons.txt b/open/nuclearWeapons.txt deleted file mode 100644 index d324c63..0000000 --- a/open/nuclearWeapons.txt +++ /dev/null @@ -1,182 +0,0 @@ -Basics: -* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon -* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design -* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon - -Relates to episodes: -* http://omegataupodcast.net/185-nuclear-test-monitoring-and-the-ctbt/ -* http://omegataupodcast.net/248-dew-sage-and-the-f-106-delta-dart/ -* http://omegataupodcast.net/258-the-history-and-technology-of-spy-satellites/ - - -Basics of Physics -------------------------------------------- -* A few of the basics about atomic structure -* Nuclear Fission and Fusion -* E=mc2 Energy and Mass, Binding Energy -* Critical mass. -* The role of Isotopes -* Atomic Bomb vs. H-Bomb - -* What are the destructive effects? - - Heat - - pressure - - EMP - - radiation? - -* Would you say radiation (and long term area denial) is a side-effect? - - -The development of the A-Bomb ------------------------------------------- -* Context: the Manhattan Project - -* Plutonium Bombs vs. Uranium Bombs - -* How it works - - critical mass; must be assembled - - gun method - - compression using "explosive lenses". What's that? - - Can both be used with both material (uranium, plutonium) - -* Technical/Engineering Milestones in the dev of the US Bomb - -* Piles. - -* Early atomic bombs; Nagasaki and Hiroshima differences? - -* Key People - - -H-Bombs ------------------------------------------- -* Basic Principle - -* structure of the H Bomb, incl. the substructure of the secondary - - -* Fusion - - Fission triggers fusion - How does this work? - - Teller-Ulam Design? - . Reflective Shell, reflects Xrays - . heat and compress fusion fuel. Why? - . transfer via radiation implosion; 73 million bar pressure! - . foam plasma pressure - . tamper-pusher ablation (much higher pressures; most likely used) - - Fusion creates high-speed neutrons that can then - trigger fission in non-enriched materials such as depleted uranium (up to 50%) - -> Multi-stage. - - Staging leads to effectively unlimited sized bombs -> limits in transport - - Fusion does not create fission products; but the fission stages do. - - Role of the Tamper, heat difference. - - Spark Plug - - majority of current Teller–Ulam are fission-fusion-fission weapon - - Interstage: "focus" four results of primary onto the secondary - 1) expanding hot gases from high explosive charges that implode the primary; - 2) superheated plasma that was originally the bomb's fissile material and its tamper; - 3) the electromagnetic radiation; and - 4) the neutrons from the primary's nuclear detonation. - Seems to to be the key to the design. Secret! - Which aspects are known? - - -* What are the engineering challenges? - . efficiency - . size/weight - . reliability - . stablity/storage - How have bombs evolved over the decades? - Should we talk about some? B61, B83? - -* How do you vary the yield? - Variable yield weapons. Doesn't this waste fuel? - - injecting deuterium/tritium gas - - timing/use of external neutron initiators - - shutting down the secondary - -* why use a tertiary instead of just a bigger secondary? - -* Key People - -* Other kinds - - Boosted fission weapon - - Neutron bomb - - Radiological weapon - - Antimatter weapon - - "Dirty Bomb" - -* Seems to me the hight of the dev was 1945 to 1970? - Not much happened since then. Correct? - - -Delivery Systems -------------------------------------------------- - -* Small volume/weight, large energy release. - -* Delivery mechamisms, challenges involved in those - - accuracy vs. power of the bomb - - Readiness, time to launch - - ICBM - silos - - SRBM - subs - - Bombers - - - -Creating the Fuel -------------------------------------------------- - -* Refinement, Purification, Centrifuges - -> What is Weapons grade, why do we need "purer" stuff there? - -* How do you purify the necesssary ingredients? - - -Testing and Maintenance --------------------------------------------------- -* How do you test? - - above - - under - - monitoring, test? - -* Simulate - -* How many tests over history? - -* Stockpile maintenance - what do we do today now that we cannot test? - - -History and Politics -------------------------------------------------- -* Accidents, losses. - -* Alltime readiness (Bombers in the air) - -* Stockpile in the cold war and today - -* Countries that have "the Bomb" - -* Do nukes work as a (realistic) weapon? - - Too much devastation - - Only as a deterrent - - Risk of inadvertent use? -> Bad deterrent? - -* Is there an agreement among historians whether "it was worth it"? - -* Other countries - - French - - British - - Chinese - - others? - -* What do we think North Korea has today? - - Is the knowledge to build this stuff available? - - What are the engineering challenges? - - Or is it really about the raw materials and their refinement? - - - - - \ No newline at end of file