Likelihood vs Probability

The difference between likelihood and probability is subtle but very important.

• Probability measures the percentage chance that a specific event will occur based on a set of conditions.
• Likelihood, on the other hand, measures the degree to which given data supports a particular statistical model or hypothesis. So, in essence, probability is used when you have the model, and you want to predict outcomes, whereas likelihood is used when you have the outcomes and want to understand the model that best fits those results.