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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Jul 27, 2025

Summary

  • Adds a comprehensive technical report explaining how PolicyEngine models the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)
  • Documents our methodology for capturing policy provisions, data sources, and calibration approaches
  • Provides transparency about modeling limitations and validation methods

Details

This blog post covers:

  1. Policy provisions modeled

    • Tax changes (TCJA extension, CTC, senior deduction, tips/overtime exemptions, etc.)
    • Benefit program changes (Medicaid/SNAP work requirements, ACA subsidies)
  2. Data sources

    • Enhanced CPS with imputed tip income from SIPP
    • Overtime premium calculations based on FLSA eligibility
    • Immigration status imputation using ASEC Undocumented Algorithm
  3. Calibration methodology

    • SNAP take-up: 77.5%
    • Medicaid take-up: 92.0%
    • ACA take-up: 65.5%
    • All calibrated to match CBO's coverage loss projections
  4. Limitations and validation

    • Lists provisions not modeled (estate tax, corporate tax, etc.)
    • Describes validation approaches

Fixes #2705

Test plan

  • Blog post renders correctly in the app (verified via Vercel preview)
  • Links work properly
  • Content is accurate and well-formatted
  • Linting passes

Note on CI failure

The CI test failure appears to be an existing flaky test in AppPage.test.js related to iframe message handling, unrelated to this blog post addition.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits July 24, 2025 18:17
- Added console logs to trace when iframe sends URL updates
- This will help diagnose the "one behind" issue where parent URL lags behind iframe selection

The issue might be that the iframe is sending the old URL params before updating its own state.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- Added comprehensive tests for AppPage iframe functionality
- Created specific test showing the "one behind" problem
- The issue: iframe sends OLD state before updating internally

The tests clearly show that the obbba-scatter app needs to:
1. Update its own state/URL first
2. THEN send the postMessage with the NEW state

Currently it's doing the opposite, causing parent URL to lag behind.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
The 'one behind' issue has been resolved in the obbba-scatter app by ensuring
it sends the NEW state after updating internally, rather than the OLD state.
Removing the extra debug logging that was added for troubleshooting.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
This technical report explains how PolicyEngine models the One Big Beautiful Bill Act,
including:
- Policy provisions captured (tax changes, benefit program changes)
- Data sources (Enhanced CPS, imputations for tips/overtime/immigration)
- Calibration to CBO projections (SNAP, Medicaid, ACA take-up rates)
- Modeling limitations and validation approaches

Fixes #2705

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
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vercel bot commented Jul 27, 2025

The latest updates on your projects. Learn more about Vercel for Git ↗︎

Name Status Preview Comments Updated (UTC)
policyengine-app ✅ Ready (Inspect) Visit Preview 💬 Add feedback Jul 27, 2025 1:02pm

Run Prettier to fix code style issues

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- Specify that the $3.8 trillion figure is PolicyEngine's projection for tax provisions
- Clarify that we don't directly model full fiscal impact of coverage losses
- Note CBO's separate estimates for Medicaid/CHIP spending reductions
- Remove unsupported claims about net fiscal impact

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
MaxGhenis and others added 6 commits July 27, 2025 08:37
Link the $3.8 trillion revenue projection to PolicyEngine's previous analysis

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
Update links to use relative paths that work both locally and in production

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- Show baseline vs OBBBA take-up rates in a table
- Explain the two-stage calibration process (weights then take-up)
- Clarify that effective enrollment changes differ from raw percentages
- Note how this achieves CBO's aggregate projections

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
Shorten the OBBBA scatter calculator link text for better formatting

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- Fix CTC refundability cap ($1,700 in 2026, not $1,800)
- Add AMT changes and itemized deduction limitation
- Note higher standard deduction vs TCJA ($32,600 vs $30,300)
- Correct QBI deduction (maintained at 20%, not increased to 23%)
- Add CDCC enhancements
- Clarify phase-outs for tips/overtime exemptions
- Reorganize into clearer categories

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- Add section explaining state/local tax integration
- Explain how federal changes flow through to state taxes
- Detail integrated benefit program modeling (SNAP, Medicaid, ACA)
- Note important interactions between tax and benefit systems
- Fix markdown formatting (blank lines around lists)
- Clarify that Pease was repealed by TCJA

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- List specific variables used in tip income model (employment income, age, children counts)
- Detail overtime calculation inputs (hours, occupation codes, FLSA status)
- Add auto loan imputation variables from SCF (age, state, income sources)
- Link to Ryan (2022) paper for ASEC Undocumented Algorithm
- Describe the 14 conditions examined in immigration status imputation
- Remove subjective adjectives, present facts directly

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
- Add footnote for CBO's $1.02 trillion Medicaid/CHIP estimate with CAP and KFF sources
- Add code links for all imputation models (tips, overtime, auto loan, immigration)
- Link to specific line numbers in GitHub for implementation details
- Add sources for baseline take-up rates from parameter files
- Link reform definitions and parameter files
- Fix markdown list formatting issues
- Use footnotes for cleaner inline text

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
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Add blog post explaining OBBBA modeling methodology
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