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f-pound
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@f-pound f-pound commented Apr 16, 2020

Thanks for your work.

@Project-Evidence
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Thank you for the kind words, Frank. We will take a look.

Interesting timelines of China's vaccine development.
@Dormienza
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hi, my name Salvatore
I am an Italian documentary maker, I don't speak the language well, I had already collected the documents and I congratulate you for having ordered the facts well; I would like to add other documents...
the first one that I am attaching dates back to 2004 and the combination of sars-cov with hiv1 via ace 2.

regarding point - 11.6 "HIV Inserts"-
I send you the link of the study :

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbrc.2004.01.076

1-s2.0-S0006291X04001214-main.pdf

regarding point : -"8.5.4 Paper 4"-
I can send you this other study that reports the presentation date of January 2019, where a mapping and classification of the species of viruses and bats is evident especially in the area of ​​Yunnan and sud est cina:

https://doi.org/10.3390/v11030210

viruses-11-00210.pdf

I did a search on the missing girl Huang Yanling who graduated in 2015, I found a university site with a photo with her name that identifies her; seems to be teaching a university of the 2016 but I have to check..
as soon as possible I insert the link.

http://skxy.swun.edu.cn/info/1023/3382.htm

PS: let me know if the documents are right and I ask you if I can use your information to disclose it in my documentary in an orderly and clear way as you did here.

best regards, I await an answer from you.

@Project-Evidence
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@f-pound Thank you, we have credited you in Revision 2. Let us know if we should include more sources.

@Dormienza Thank you for including the photo of Huang Yanling! This is very valuable. You are absolutely welcome to use our content as long as you credit our website (project-evidence.github.io). Let us know what you think of Revision 2. We may add your additional documents to Revision 3, however you can make a pull request if you want to get started immediately. We are reviewing the university website now.

@Project-Evidence
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Also, we have archived the website for you: http://archive.is/WxP5U

@nemonominem
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Hello,

I would like to add some element mined from French newspapers on the interesting history of the Wuhan P4 lab. The French have not made much noise about it (it is rather embarrassing), but it actually builds up to an image of lack of security and possible PLA take-over of the P4 lab.

I am French and I can read the language as well as German (the Frankfurter Allgemeine recently exposed some of these in an article).
Happy to help. Let me know if you want me to contribute.

Here are the key findings gleaned from quality news websites in French - which then were reported in the Frankfurter Allgemeine and on a US website:

  • The Wuhan P4 lab was designed and was meant to be built by the French. However once they got the blueprints, the Chinese side redirected the building work to an inexperienced Chinese company with links to the PLA.
    Precisely: the planned master contractor was the French company RTV. The Chinese Research Ministry instead gave the work to IPPR Engineering International, a Chinese company. The French security services then found out that IPPR was directly linked to the China National Equipment of Machinery Corporation (CNEMC), which is controlled by the PLA.
    CNEMC was for a while on the CIA blacklist.

  • As a result the French company that was supposed to do it (Technip) refused to validate the lab as being P4.

  • 3 years after it opened the Wuhan P4 lab is still not accredited by the WHO as a partner lab.

  • The Chinese side also renegaded on all cooperation projects with the French which had been planned with the purchase. The 50 French scientists that were supposed to work there never arrived.

  • The project was very controversial. French intelligence services were worried that the P4 lab would be used for military purpose and did not like the general lack of transparency from China.

  • For instance before selling the P4 lab, the French - who had sold 5 mobile P3 labs to China in 2004 - asked the Chinese side what had happened to them, fearing that they were in PLA hands. China never provided a proper answer - which raised doubts with the French side. (Their exact answer was that 'some had frozen when moved in a region close to the Himalaya and the remaining ones went missing' - No, it is not a joke!).

  • Also the Chinese told the French that they had no other P4 or P3 labs (beyond the mobile P3 sold earlier by France). In fact it was later found that they were working on 3 P4 labs and had another P3 lab, all controlled by the PLA.

  • Once the P4 lab was built, the French refused to sell safety suits to the Chinese, fearing that they would be used for military research.

SOURCES:

https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503

https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/how-france-helped-build-chinese-biolab-linked-to-covid-19-and-then-got-burned-by-the-communists?fbclid=IwAR3AZY3hc4fDYJ7T4DKRba8PvhmLkSd-EIImXPvsvVDGb3w5TeOoNLSWEtc

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/warum-die-franzosen-ein-virenlabor-nach-wuhan-lieferten-16746007.html

https://www.marianne.net/coronavirus-chine-laboratoire-franco-chinois

https://www.challenges.fr/entreprise/sante-et-pharmacie/coronavirus-en-chine-apres-le-sras-la-sulfureuse-cooperation-franco-chinoise-a-wuhan_695165

https://www.franceculture.fr/sciences/le-laboratoire-p4-de-wuhan-une-histoire-francaise

for the 'frozen in the Himalaya' answer from China:
http://www.opex360.com/2020/04/18/un-depute-sinterroge-la-chine-a-t-elle-reussi-a-diminuer-nos-capacites-militaires-a-cause-ou-grace-a-un-virus/

@f-pound
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f-pound commented May 4, 2020

Please take a look at the WIV CAS CCP web portal. I have included a few links below. What is interesting to me is that Shi Zhengli 'Bat Woman' seems to be sitting very close to the lead party representative in some of the CCP meeting photos. According the web site, CCP regularly holds 'Party Education and Discipline' meetings at WIV. New grads are indoctrinated and then take the party oath. I apologize for the haste in posting this but hoping collectively this information can be cited and at least archived. Note that WIV only allows HTTP access and not HTTPS. I think they do this to allow their filters to see all traffic.

I think this is important because it supports the idea that China/CCP would be enforcing a very tight control regime over any/all information related to the pandemic. This material to me is quite scary.

http://pr.whiov.cas.cn

http://pr.whiov.cas.cn/zti/lxyz/&usg=ALkJrhhnNuzFKG_lIxJj6QrNwhdjAl7rGA

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=zh-CN&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=http://pr.whiov.cas.cn/zti/lxyz/&usg=ALkJrhhnNuzFKG_lIxJj6QrNwhdjAl7rGA

@yawriatsBE
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Sorry, I dunno how to use this site.
When I read this article I thought it fitted with your work.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567134820301829
Thanks for all your efforts

@notna1109
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Hello

You are doing a great job. Thanks to you. I would like to add my piece to your work. Yesterday a French Hospital made a statement (Dr. Michel Schmitt) about the fact that they identified retrospectively a SARS-CoV-2 positive patient in their hospital in november 2019 (le 16th to be accurate) which lead to investigate if the virus could be around november 2019 and ealier in France.
le-communique-de-l-hopital-albert-schweitzer.pdf

There is another evidence that the virus was indeed in France 1-2 month before the first official cases in China. It's coming from Pr. Cohen (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643)

Do not hesitate to ask if you need translation.

Keep up the good work!

@erdal209
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erdal209 commented May 8, 2020

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241
Suggesting it might not even started in wuhan..
Peter forster pf cambridge uni. has a few youtube videos aswell..

@f-pound
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f-pound commented May 8, 2020

The French information is based on chest imagery, not on phylogenetic data. Erdal209, can you provide the hypothesis for the paper you cited. I read the paper and I'm not seeing the specific statements that it originated outside Wuhan. Happy to hear more.

@nemonominem
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nemonominem commented May 8, 2020

You actually need to read French sites if you want more information on the early French cases.
Here is a good french article on the suspected case in in November (not proven - no sample preserved - just based on radiology).

What is happening here is that it is more and more apparent that the virus spread out of China sometime towards end of October at the latest - which fits nicely with Dr Foster analysis (Cambridge).
It's fully in line with declaration from the WHO itself which recently noted that we should expect to start detecting early cases if we go back to Nove/Ded diagnostics of pneumonia.

For some reasons the first few generations seem to have petered out, until it went pandemic in Wuhan. Maybe some mutations are at play.

Quick translation: Dt Schmitt explains that it would not be surprising because of all the Chinese people visiting that part of France at the time and the many company executives who live in that part of France and travel to China. It also mentions the possibility of returning athletes from the Wuhan military athletic event.

Extract:

Le Dr Schmitt cite les nombreux touristes chinois qui viennent en Alsace et beaucoup d’industriels et chefs d’entreprise alsaciens qui se rendent régulièrement en Chine. Il y a aussi la piste de militaires qui se sont rendus à des jeux sportifs à Wuhan en automne.

https://www.dna.fr/edition-strasbourg/2020/05/08/des-premiers-cas-des-la-mi-novembre-dans-le-haut-rhin

@nemonominem
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nemonominem commented May 8, 2020

A bit a thought provoking here:
We know the China has claimed rather ridiculously that the virus was spread by US army during the Wuhan military games.
Now thinking about it, they would do that if they were trying to hide any possible early sign that could have been noticed at these games.

As the clock goes backward and we start finding early cases in Europe which get closer to the October athletic games, it could be interesting to check if the virus could not have been already with some Chinese athletes.

Now if the virus leaked from a Chinese lab, that would start making a lot of sense.
Can we check which team sport events were played, which countries met each over in team events, whether any Chinese team sport member became sick at some stage?

There is another interesting element. The Wuhan Naval University of Engineering (PLA) started temperature checks at its gates on the 2nd January. That's very early, when China officially believed that there was no risk of human contagion.
It could be just a strict interpretation of guidelines - but that's odd.
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228435515776667649

@wisefish99
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@Dormienza Thank you for including the photo of Huang Yanling! This is very valuable. You are absolutely welcome to use our content as long as you credit our website (project-evidence.github.io). Let us know what you think of Revision 2. We may add your additional documents to Revision 3, however you can make a pull request if you want to get started immediately. We are reviewing the university website now.

That is a picture of a person named Huang Yanling. Doesn't appear to be the right Huang Yanling, since she works at Southwest Minzu University and focuses on total different research areas (livestock food). She was also publishing work back in 2007 and 2009, making her quite a bit older than the Huang Yanling that was a graduate student in Wuhan in 2015.

It's not an uncommon name, and there are 1.4 billion people in China. I can Google my own name and find a dozen people with the same first and last name as I have in the US.

@erdal209
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erdal209 commented May 9, 2020

https://medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748

Nice article by russian.. not peer reviewed.
But plenty of good debate in comments.
Dont know if you can use it,
its basically zhengli vs barics work
Very nicly analysed .
Kind of the smoking gun i would say..seems its zhengli ..

In regards to the peter forsters paper , i might have been jumping the gun on saying it suggests it.. i was looking at strain types and drew a parallel to the mysterious pneumonia deaths in clusters and vaping deaths with scarred lungs in usa in 2019 some around fort detrick, same timeline it got shut down by cdc

@research-project-cov
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  • As a result the French company that was supposed to do it (Technip) refused to validate the lab as being P4.

This is incorrect; the official statement is " Technip has never participated to the P4 project in Wuhan. Technip has been approach end of the 2000s to participate to the P4 laboratory project in Wuhan. But after very preliminary discussion, Technip has rapidly decided to decline to participate to this project.”

@nemonominem
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nemonominem commented May 11, 2020

Please see https://www.franceculture.fr/sciences/le-laboratoire-p4-de-wuhan-une-histoire-francaise.

'Mais ce seront des entreprises chinoises qui assureront l’essentiel de la construction, ce qui n’est pas toujours du goût des Français. Technip par exemple, refusera de certifier le bâtiment.'

Translation: But Chinese companies would end up doing most of the construction, which was not exactly something that pleased the French. Technip, for instance, then refused to certify the building.

Or this one in English: https://theeasternlink.com/why-the-french-are-silent-on-wuhan/
It confirms that Technip was supposed to certify the building to the standard of the P4 in Lyon (the largest P4 in Europe) and refused to do so as the construction was seen as cutting corners.

In 2005 the Chinese gave the construction job to IPRR, which the French intelligence services linked to China National Equipment of Machinery Corporation (CNEMC), itself controlled by the PLA. Technip then got out in 2007.
See https://fl24.net/2020/04/16/scoop-le-laboratoire-p4-a-ete-construit-par-une-entreprise-francaise/

  • As a result the French company that was supposed to do it (Technip) refused to validate the lab as being P4.

This is incorrect; the official statement is " Technip has never participated to the P4 project in Wuhan. Technip has been approach end of the 2000s to participate to the P4 laboratory project in Wuhan. But after very preliminary discussion, Technip has rapidly decided to decline to participate to this project.”

@nemonominem
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nemonominem commented May 11, 2020

By the way, I am sure that you have now seen the following

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6884792/MACE-E-PAI-COVID-19-ANALYSIS-Redacted.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2KOumdL47nqN26M5Fn-Xf_bAXzZ11_n3Jek7qBuvchg5pGDrQ8ouMHHmk

Some notes:

@research-project-cov
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By the way, I am sure that you have now seen the following

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6884792/MACE-E-PAI-COVID-19-ANALYSIS-Redacted.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2KOumdL47nqN26M5Fn-Xf_bAXzZ11_n3Jek7qBuvchg5pGDrQ8ouMHHmk

report inaccurate : page 7/26, said no traffic between October 14-19 2020; it should be 2019
image

@nemonominem
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nemonominem commented May 12, 2020

Right.
It is likely that this is an edition by one of the journalist that got it (PDF created by Lorand Bodo on the 8th May). You can see on page 21 that the normal looking image titles are white on the black background. The black-on-white image titles on page 7 look like editions in PDF, just like the red masks on pages 19 to 21. Also you can see how the black-on-white titles break the blue inclosing line - it was just dropped in the top left corner.

That report raises questions - it seems to use NSA tools (Odin's Eye?) and MACE pops up on wikileaks. Who produced it? Why were the images copies (in bad resolution), with the last two pages blank?

@github-user-user
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First thing's first, I'm a new GitHub user. I have no clue what "comparing changes across 2 branches" means. I'm just going to contribute what I can.

  1. We are looking for contributors who can provide evidence that Huang Yanling posted on WeChat in the middle of February. However, we have not found this message. Additionally, we could not find any recent photos of her that may have been attached to the message.- I found this message from Tony Brunt, which has a photo that is probably the message you are looking for.

@research-project-cov
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@github-user-user
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Huang Yanliang:

Huang Yanling: see also https://project-gutenberg.github.io/nCovMemory-Web/post/165691984a5e6eeca9ca12398e3db571/

Also this (photos from the link provided by research-project-cov): http://bridgeurl.com/chat-photos

@nemonominem
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OK. I have asked Lorand Bodo at the NBC News Verification Center (https://www.linkedin.com/in/lorand-bodo-080101ba) about that 2020 caption. Below is the conversation. Note that this is what they got. He also says that they will be some updated info in the next few days.

Gilles Demaneuf 6:38 PM
Hi Lorand. Can you please advise on the error on page 7 of https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6884792/MACE-E-PAI-COVID-19-ANALYSIS-Redacted.pdf
It shows the date range as 'Oct14-19 2020'. It must mean 2019, not 2020. Can you please confirm whether this is your own added caption in PDF? Tx

Lorand Bodo sent the following message at 6:40 PM
View Lorand’s profile Lorand Bodo
Lorand Bodo 6:40 PM

Hi Gilles, this is the document which we obtained. We haven't added/changed anything. The investigation is still ongoing and more info will be published in the coming days. Hope this helps.
Best,
Lorand

Gilles Demaneuf sent the following message at 7:01 PM
View Gilles’ profile Gilles Demaneuf
Gilles Demaneuf 7:01 PM

Forward
Share via email
Thanks. Keep the good work.

Lorand Bodo sent the following message at 7:29 PM
View Lorand’s profile Lorand Bodo
Lorand Bodo 7:29 PM

Thanks

@Qp-0
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Qp-0 commented May 16, 2020

https://telegra.ph/Guoke-Faji-2019236-05-15

One project stands out as a potential origin of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. The project involved novel bat viral pathogen research and the Wuhan Central Hospital.

On 11 July 2019, China's Ministry of Science and Technology invited bids for the project "Scientific survey of the principal natural viral pathogen resources in China", to be financed with part of a ¥300m fund. Online applications were due by 9 September, and relevant paperwork due by 13 September 2019.

Winners of the project were required to identify five major novel viral pathogens from wild animals including bats, and carry out a biosecurity risk assessment by testing them on small animals. Its goals were to:

  • Systematically screen wild animals (bats, birds, rodents etc.) and arthropod vectors (mosquitoes and ticks) carrying viral pathogens;
  • Investigate the spectrum of viruses carried by major animal hosts and vectors to determine the distribution of natural pathogens in China;
  • Isolate and identify novel viruses using a biological safety platform;
  • Conduct basic pathogenic characteristics research on major novel viral pathogens; and
  • Establish a national strategic viral pathogen resource library and shared database, and carry out resource and information sharing services.

The project's assessment indicators were to:

  1. Submit one report on the lineage, genetic characteristics and geographical distribution of viral pathogen carriers such as bats, birds, mosquitoes, rodents and ticks in key regions of China;
  2. Obtain genomes of more than 100 novel viruses / strains;
  3. Isolate, identify, collect and preserve 50 major viral pathogens;
  4. Analyse the pathogenic characteristics of 10 major novel viruses / strains, including at least five major novel viral pathogens, based on a biosecurity risk assessment at the cellular and small animal level; and
  5. Establish a standardised viral pathogen resource library and shared database.

When discussing the outbreak, Professor Zhang Yongzhen said that he was cooperating long-term with both the Wuhan CDC and the Wuhan Central Hospital on the "Scientific survey of the principal natural viral pathogen resources in China" project. One of Professor Zhang's team later said that this had been going on for many years.

@nemonominem
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nemonominem commented May 19, 2020

Guoke Faji in the Telegra.ph page (https://telegra.ph/Guoke-Faji-2019236-05-15) means 'National Science and Technology Development Fund' (https://translate.yandex.com/?lang=zh-en&text=%E5%9B%BD%E7%A7%91%E5%8F%91%E5%9F%BA).

It's a reference to circular no 236 of the 'National Science and Technology Development Fund', http://archive.is/HA9ql#selection-967.0-975.191.

Project 15 under that circular is 'Scientific Investigation of China's Major Naturally Epidemic Viral Resources'. That's the one quoted in that Telegra.ph page.

The other links show that indeed the Wuhan CDC and the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre were involved in that project, with Zhang Yongzhen playing a leading role.

The interesting fact is that Zhang Yongzhen and his team were 'rectified' on the 12th January for publishing the first covid sequencing ('rectified' is the party codeword for being punished for breaking the party's line); https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052966/chinese-laboratory-first-shared-coronavirus-genome-world-ordered. Their laboratory was closed down the day after they published the sequencing.

The rest is very detailed. You would have to be very well informed to be able to put these documents together.

One element that I keep coming through again and again, is that they were doing a lot of sequencing in these labs in Wuhan. They were basically doing many at the same time.

For instance see the work of Dr Linfa Wang, the top infectious disease expert at Duke-National University of Singapore. He was working on cheap sequencing at scale, as part of the very same China National Science and Technology Major Project on Infectious Diseases (grant number 2018ZX10305409-004-001 to Peng Zhou).
His work was putting him in contact with the Wuhan CDC and the P4 lab.
For his link to the Wuhan CDC link see the acknowledgements of his paper on enrichment for Next Generation Sequencing: .https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6992374/.

For his link to the P4 lab, this good overview of the above paper: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200129131441.htm states that Wang led that study with Peng Zhou, Ph.D., a virologist at the Chinese Academy of Science's Center for Biosafety Mega-Science in Wuhan, China - which is basically the Wuhan P4 lab.

The Wuhan P4 and Wuhan CDC are actually very much working together in this case. It's fairly fluid.

Also it looks very much like Dr Linfa Wang was in Wuhan around the 2nd week of October. As per the OSINT project from MACE E-PAI he is the likely owner of the Singapore phone that popped up there: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6884792-MACE-E-PAI-COVID-19-ANALYSIS-Redacted.html, page 12.

There is a possibility of a lab problem when sequencing one of these many new viruses - at the Wuhan CDC most likely. The Wuhan P4 lab likely had better training and may be a red herring (and I suspect that at the very beginning the Chinese authorities may not even have known which lab could be responsible - they would have suspected all equally until they got more elements).

@lkj-1
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lkj-1 commented May 19, 2020

The WIV has BSL-2, BSL-3 and BSL-4 and other facilities at the Zhengdian Scientific Park: http://archive.is/Fhvy9#selection-989.124-989.170

As the Wuhan CDC could, the WIV still works with SARS-like viral pathogens at the BSL-2 level: http://archive.is/FfJ53#selection-2209.0-2209.121

"All work with the infectious virus was performed under biosafety level 2 conditions with appropriate personal protection."

@nemonominem
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Following on the MACE E-PAI OSINT analysis of active cell-phones and possible road blocks around the P4 lab in Wuhan in the 2nd weeb of October, let me try to clarify the Kenyan connection on page 20 of the report (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6884792/MACE-E-PAI-COVID-19-ANALYSIS-Redacted.pdf).

In April 2017 a team - made up of Zheng-Li Shi ('batwoman', Wuhan P4 lab - WIV), Cecilia Waruhiu (a Kenyan scientist trained at the P4), Sheila Ommeh (a Pakistani working in Nairobi), and 6 more scientist working at the Wuhan IV - published a paper that for the first time analyzed coronaviruses from bats found in Kenya.

This was ground-breaking research for Kenya - and a good indication of the quality and extent of the work around Zhen-Li Shi.

Cecilia Waruhiu seems to have been the lead scientist on that paper. She did her MS in Nairobi and her PHD at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. She speaks Mandarin.
So it is quite possible that she, or someone she works with, was visiting the P4.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Agwanda+B&cauthor_id=28393313

@vinucube
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You are making two mistakes:

  1. Your HIV-inserts conclusion is incorrect. In your article, Section 8.5.1 should give you a clue of where the HIV-inserts came from. HIV derived plasmids used by the Wuhan lab. THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING.
  2. You are ASSUMING RaTG13 is a wild virus. It was "isolated" in 2013. But only sequenced and uploaded to Genbank AFTER the COVID-19 outbreak. ANY conclusions based on RaTG13 are therefore suspect. RaTG13 itself may be a lab origin cousin of SARS-CoV-2.
    Please see details here:

Root cause of COVID-19? Biotechnology's dirty secret: Contamination. Bioinformatics evidence demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 was created in a laboratory, unlikely to be a bioweapon but most likely a result of sloppy experiments

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3766462

@SinusoidDelta
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Apologies if this has already been provided, the paper coauthored by Prof. Petrovsky:

In silico comparison of spike protein-ACE2 binding affinities across species; significance for the possible origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

Link:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.06199.pdf

@nemonominem
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Hi Vinu,

I read your paper with interest. I am no specialist, but nevertheless a scientist.
Please forgive me for commenting that your paper would be stronger if you could frame it in terms of probability of the 6 inserts to be of natural origin vs. lab origin. Even a rough estimate (with low / high levels) would help.

At the end of the day, in the absence of collaboration on the Chinese side (to put it nicely) we have to look at probabilities and do constant Bayesian updates of possible scenarios as more pieces of the puzzle come into light. Eventually this will point to a few most likely scenarios.

Also please note that while everybody is looking at the Wuhan P4 lab, it seems that the CDC lab was also very active. The more I read about the various coronavirus research projects and their national coordination, the more fluid the situation looks, with quite a bit of movement and collaboration on the same projects involving various labs. They were thinking big, acting fast and big with some excellent research but also undue risks.
So it may be better to just point to the Wuhan labs generally.

Tx,
Gilles

@research-project-cov
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Technip then got out in 2007.

Technip never went in P4 Wihan project; it declined to participate to the project: (from direct source within Technip); France

@research-project-cov
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new story by China: (Fort Detrick Biological Base is situated in the US state of Maryland): https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jODBni4HswZcSSLWqi966Q

need for probabilities : both on the sequence itself; but also probabilities of occurrence in Wuhan, with its P2, numerous P3, and recent P4; who can do that?

@nemonominem
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Short of a zoonotic event in China, the most likely lab event is a lab event in Wuhan. Quick probabilities show you that the probability of a lab event in Fort Derrick, followed by no local contamination and a weird exclusive chain of contamination to the Wuhan games, from which there is no known link to the Wuhan outbreak is at least 2 orders less than the probability of a lab even in Wuhan, particularly given the number (at least 3) of labs working there at P2 or P3 on exactly this type of coronavirus and doing GOF and the admission by Yuan Zhiming, the CCP head and director of the Institute of Virology, of big issues in biosafety in the Chinese labs.

Then if you compare the probability of a zoonotic event with outbreak in Wuhan and nowhere else to the probability of a lab event in Wuhan, they are again separated by one if not two orders of magnitude, given that Wuhan has no bat population, that no bat was traded at the market and that a zoonotic event out of Wuhan would have most likely spread to other parts of the country (unless it is linked to the collection of bats or other animals for the Wuhan labs).

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