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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions lectures/BCG_incomplete_mkts.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -242,7 +242,7 @@ show up in differences in the two types of consumers’ demands for a
typical firm’s bonds and equity, the only two assets that agents can now
trade.

## Asset Markets
## Asset markets

Markets are incomplete: *ex cathedra* we the model builders declare that only equities and bonds issued by representative
firms can be traded.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -548,7 +548,7 @@ $C$’s that appear in the pricing functions, then
- $\check q = q(K,B)$ and
$\check p = p(K,B)$.

## Pseudo Code
## Pseudo code

Before displaying our Python code for computing a BCG incomplete markets equilibrium,
we’ll sketch some pseudo code that describes its logical flow.
Expand Down
16 changes: 8 additions & 8 deletions lectures/additive_functionals.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import norm, lognorm
```

## A Particular Additive Functional
## A particular additive functional

{cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` describes a general class of additive functionals.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -123,7 +123,7 @@ initial condition for $y$.
The nonstationary random process $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ displays
systematic but random *arithmetic growth*.

### Linear State-Space Representation
### Linear state-space representation

A convenient way to represent our additive functional is to use a [linear state space system](https://python-intro.quantecon.org/linear_models.html).

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -872,7 +872,7 @@ Notice tell-tale signs of these probability coverage shaded areas
* the green one for the stationary component $s_t$ converges to a
constant band

### Associated Multiplicative Functional
### Associated multiplicative functional

Where $\{y_t\}$ is our additive functional, let $M_t = \exp(y_t)$.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -929,7 +929,7 @@ It is interesting to how the martingale behaves as $T \rightarrow +\infty$.

Let's see what happens when we set $T = 12000$ instead of $150$.

### Peculiar Large Sample Property
### Peculiar large sample property

Hansen and Sargent {cite}`Hans_Sarg_book` (ch. 8) describe the following two properties of the martingale component
$\widetilde M_t$ of the multiplicative decomposition
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -958,7 +958,7 @@ It remains constant at unity, illustrating the first property.

The purple 95 percent frequency coverage interval collapses around zero, illustrating the second property.

## More About the Multiplicative Martingale
## More about the multiplicative martingale

Let's drill down and study probability distribution of the multiplicative martingale $\{\widetilde M_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ in
more detail.
Expand All @@ -973,7 +973,7 @@ where $H = [F + D(I-A)^{-1} B]$.

It follows that $\log {\widetilde M}_t \sim {\mathcal N} ( -\frac{t H \cdot H}{2}, t H \cdot H )$ and that consequently ${\widetilde M}_t$ is log normal.

### Simulating a Multiplicative Martingale Again
### Simulating a multiplicative martingale again

Next, we want a program to simulate the likelihood ratio process $\{ \tilde{M}_t \}_{t=0}^\infty$.

Expand All @@ -984,7 +984,7 @@ After accomplishing this, we want to display and study histograms of $\tilde{M}_

Here is code that accomplishes these tasks.

### Sample Paths
### Sample paths

Let's write a program to simulate sample paths of $\{ x_t, y_{t} \}_{t=0}^{\infty}$.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1257,7 +1257,7 @@ These probability density functions help us understand mechanics underlying the
* Enough mass moves toward the right tail to keep $E \widetilde M_T = 1$
even as most mass in the distribution of $\widetilde M_T$ collapses around $0$.

### Multiplicative Martingale as Likelihood Ratio Process
### Multiplicative martingale as likelihood ratio process

[This lecture](https://python.quantecon.org/likelihood_ratio_process.html) studies **likelihood processes**
and **likelihood ratio processes**.
Expand Down
30 changes: 15 additions & 15 deletions lectures/amss.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ In this lecture, we

We begin with an introduction to the model.

## Competitive Equilibrium with Distorting Taxes
## Competitive equilibrium with distorting taxes

Many but not all features of the economy are identical to those of {doc}`the Lucas-Stokey economy <opt_tax_recur>`.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -118,7 +118,7 @@ AMSS allow the government to issue only one-period risk-free debt each period.

Ruling out complete markets in this way is a step in the direction of making total tax collections behave more like that prescribed in Robert Barro (1979) {cite}`Barro1979` than they do in Lucas and Stokey (1983) {cite}`LucasStokey1983`.

### Risk-free One-Period Debt Only
### Risk-free one-period debt only

In period $t$ and history $s^t$, let

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ b_t(s^{t-1}) = \mathbb E_t \sum_{j=0}^\infty \beta^j

Equation {eq}`TS_gov_wo4a` must hold for each $s^t$ for each $t \geq 1$.

### Comparison with Lucas-Stokey Economy
### Comparison with Lucas-Stokey economy

The expression on the right side of {eq}`TS_gov_wo4a` in the Lucas-Stokey (1983) economy would equal the present value of a continuation stream of government net-of-interest surpluses evaluated at what would be competitive equilibrium Arrow-Debreu prices at date $t$.

Expand All @@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ In the AMSS economy, the restriction that government debt be risk-free imposes t

In a language used in the literature on incomplete markets models, it can be said that the AMSS model requires that at each $(t, s^t)$ what would be the present value of continuation government net-of-interest surpluses in the Lucas-Stokey model must belong to the **marketable subspace** of the AMSS model.

### Ramsey Problem Without State-contingent Debt
### Ramsey problem without state-contingent debt

After we have substituted the resource constraint into the utility function, we can express the Ramsey problem as being to choose an allocation that solves

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -286,7 +286,7 @@ and

given $b_0(s^{-1})$.

#### Lagrangian Formulation
#### Lagrangian formulation

Let $\gamma_0(s^0)$ be a non-negative Lagrange multiplier on constraint {eq}`AMSS_44`.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -316,7 +316,7 @@ That would let us reduce the beginning-of-period indebtedness for some other his

These features flow from the fact that the government cannot use state-contingent debt and therefore cannot allocate its indebtedness efficiently across future states.

### Some Calculations
### Some calculations

It is helpful to apply two transformations to the Lagrangian.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -408,7 +408,7 @@ tags: [collapse-20]
To analyze the AMSS model, we find it useful to adopt a recursive formulation
using techniques like those in our lectures on {doc}`dynamic Stackelberg models <dyn_stack>` and {doc}`optimal taxation with state-contingent debt <opt_tax_recur>`.

## Recursive Version of AMSS Model
## Recursive version of AMSS model

We now describe a recursive formulation of the AMSS economy.

Expand All @@ -424,7 +424,7 @@ We now explore how these constraints alter Bellman equations for a time
$0$ Ramsey planner and for time $t \geq 1$, history $s^t$
continuation Ramsey planners.

### Recasting State Variables
### Recasting state variables

In the AMSS setting, the government faces a sequence of budget constraints

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -487,7 +487,7 @@ history $s^t$ as

for $t \geq 1$.

### Measurability Constraints
### Measurability constraints

Write equation {eq}`eqn:AMSSapp2` as

Expand All @@ -510,7 +510,7 @@ That implies that it has to be *measurable* with respect to $s^{t-1}$.
Equations {eq}`eqn:AMSSapp2b` are the *measurability constraints* that the AMSS model adds to the single time $0$ implementation
constraint imposed in the Lucas and Stokey model.

### Two Bellman Equations
### Two Bellman equations

Let $\Pi(s|s_-)$ be a Markov transition matrix whose entries tell probabilities of moving from state $s_-$ to state $s$ in one period.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ where maximization is subject to
u_{c,0} b_0 = u_{c,0} (n_0-g_0) - u_{l,0} n_0 + x_0
```

### Martingale Supercedes State-Variable Degeneracy
### Martingale supercedes state-variable degeneracy

Let $\mu(s|s_-) \Pi(s|s_-)$ be a Lagrange multiplier on the constraint {eq}`eqn:AMSSapp6`
for state $s$.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -620,7 +620,7 @@ that for each $s_-$, the sum over $s$ equals unity.
```{exercise-end}
```

### Absence of State Variable Degeneracy
### Absence of state variable degeneracy

Along a Ramsey plan, the state variable $x_t = x_t(s^t, b_0)$
becomes a function of the history $s^t$ and initial
Expand All @@ -642,7 +642,7 @@ In the AMSS model, both $x$ and $s$ are needed to describe the state.
This property of the AMSS model transmits a twisted martingale
component to consumption, employment, and the tax rate.

### Digression on Non-negative Transfers
### Digression on non-negative transfers

Throughout this lecture, we have imposed that transfers $T_t = 0$.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -686,7 +686,7 @@ The recursive formulation is implemented as follows

We now turn to some examples.

### Anticipated One-Period War
### Anticipated one-period war

In our lecture on {doc}`optimal taxation with state-contingent debt <opt_tax_recur>`
we studied how the government manages uncertainty in a simple setting.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -874,7 +874,7 @@ Without state-contingent debt, the optimal tax rate is history dependent.
* A war at time $t=3$ causes a permanent **increase** in the tax rate.
* Peace at time $t=3$ causes a permanent **reduction** in the tax rate.

#### Perpetual War Alert
#### Perpetual war alert

History dependence occurs more dramatically in a case in which the government
perpetually faces the prospect of war.
Expand Down
28 changes: 14 additions & 14 deletions lectures/amss2.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.optimize import fsolve, fmin
```

## Forces at Work
## Forces at work

The forces driving asymptotic outcomes here are examples of dynamics present in a more general class of incomplete markets models analyzed in {cite}`BEGS1` (BEGS).

Expand All @@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ rates rather than fluctuations in par values of debt to insure against shocks
shutting down the stochastic component of debt dynamics.
- At that point, the tail of the par value of government debt becomes a trivial martingale: it is constant over time.

## Logical Flow of Lecture
## Logical flow of lecture

We present ideas in the following order

Expand All @@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ We present ideas in the following order
- we verify that the LS Ramsey planner chooses to purchase **identical** claims to time $t+1$ consumption for all Markov states tomorrow for each Markov state today.
* We compute the BEGS approximations to check how accurately they describe the dynamics of the long-simulation.

### Equations from Lucas-Stokey (1983) Model
### Equations from Lucas-Stokey (1983) model

Although we are studying an AMSS {cite}`aiyagari2002optimal` economy, a Lucas-Stokey {cite}`LucasStokey1983` economy plays
an important role in the reverse-engineering calculation to be described below.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ $$
It is useful to transform some of the above equations to forms that are more natural for analyzing the
case of a CRRA utility specification that we shall use in our example economies.

### Specification with CRRA Utility
### Specification with CRRA utility

As in lectures {doc}`optimal taxation without state-contingent debt <amss>` and {doc}`optimal taxation with state-contingent debt <opt_tax_recur>`,
we assume that the representative agent has utility function
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ The CRRA utility function is represented in the following class.
:load: _static/lecture_specific/amss2/crra_utility.py
```

## Example Economy
## Example economy

We set the following parameter values.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -292,7 +292,7 @@ tags: [collapse-20]
---
```

## Reverse Engineering Strategy
## Reverse engineering strategy

We can reverse engineer a value $b_0$ of initial debt due that renders the AMSS measurability constraints not binding from time $t =0$ onward.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -337,7 +337,7 @@ state $s_t=s$ from $b(s) = {\frac{x(s)}{u_c(s)}}$ or the matrix equation
**Step 7:** At the value of $\Phi$ and the value of $\bar b$ that emerged from step 6, solve equations
{eq}`amss2_TS_barg11` and {eq}`eqn_AMSS2_10` jointly for $c_0, b_0$.

## Code for Reverse Engineering
## Code for reverse engineering

Here is code to do the calculations for us.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -420,7 +420,7 @@ c0, b0

Thus, we have reverse engineered an initial $b0 = -1.038698407551764$ that ought to render the AMSS measurability constraints slack.

## Short Simulation for Reverse-engineered: Initial Debt
## Short simulation for reverse-engineered: initial debt

The following graph shows simulations of outcomes for both a Lucas-Stokey economy and for an AMSS economy starting from initial government
debt equal to $b_0 = -1.038698407551764$.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -477,7 +477,7 @@ Notice how for $t \geq 1$, the tax rate is a constant - so is the par value of g

However, output and labor supply are both nontrivial time-invariant functions of the Markov state.

## Long Simulation
## Long simulation

The following graph shows the par value of government debt and the flat-rate tax on labor income for a long simulation for our sample economy.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -523,7 +523,7 @@ plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
```

### Remarks about Long Simulation
### Remarks about long simulation

As remarked above, after $b_{t+1}(s^t)$ has converged to a constant, the measurability constraints in the AMSS model cease to bind

Expand All @@ -536,7 +536,7 @@ This leads us to seek an initial value of government debt $b_0$ that renders the

We now describe how to find such an initial level of government debt.

## BEGS Approximations of Limiting Debt and Convergence Rate
## BEGS approximations of limiting debt and convergence rate

It is useful to link the outcome of our reverse engineering exercise to limiting approximations constructed by BEGS {cite}`BEGS1`.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -573,7 +573,7 @@ BEGS interpret random variations in the right side of {eq}`eq_fiscal_risk` as a
${\mathcal R}_\tau(s, s_{-}) {\mathcal B}_{-}$, and
- fluctuations in the effective government deficit ${\mathcal X}_t$

### Asymptotic Mean
### Asymptotic mean

BEGS give conditions under which the ergodic mean of ${\mathcal B}_t$ is

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -607,7 +607,7 @@ Expressing formula {eq}`prelim_formula` in terms of our notation tells us that
\hat b = \frac{\mathcal B^*}{\beta E_t u_{c,t+1}}
```

### Rate of Convergence
### Rate of convergence

BEGS also derive the following approximation to the rate of convergence to ${\mathcal B}^{*}$ from an arbitrary initial condition.

Expand All @@ -619,7 +619,7 @@ BEGS also derive the following approximation to the rate of convergence to ${\m

(See the equation above equation (47) in {cite}`BEGS1`)

### Formulas and Code Details
### Formulas and code details

For our example, we describe some code that we use to compute the steady state mean and the rate of convergence to it.

Expand Down
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