🐋 Do Whales Move the Market? — Analyzing Large Transfers vs Price Movements on Arbitrum

📌 Project Overview

This project investigates whether large "whale" transactions on the Arbitrum blockchain have a measurable impact on the ARB token price.
Over a 30-day period, we analyzed $1+ billion worth of ARB transactions, combining on-chain activity data with market price data.

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📊 Data Sources

• Dune API — For fetching whale transaction data from the Arbitrum blockchain.
• CoinGecko API — For historical ARB token price data.

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🛠️ Tech Stack

• Language: Python 3.x
• Libraries Used:
  • requests — API data fetching
  • pandas — Data wrangling & cleaning
  • numpy — Numerical computations
  • scipy — Statistical analysis (Pearson correlation)
  • matplotlib & seaborn — Data visualization

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🔍 Methodology

1. Data Collection

   • Queried Dune API for whale transaction data.
   • Queried CoinGecko API for historical ARB price data.

2. Data Processing

   • Merged datasets by timestamp.
   • Normalized values for comparison.

3. Statistical Analysis

   • Calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficient and p-value.
   • Created scatter plots and line–bar visualizations.

4. Visualization

   • Scatter plot for whale transactions vs. price impact.
   • Line–bar plot comparing whale transaction volume with price change.

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📈 Key Findings

Metric	Value	Interpretation
Correlation coefficient	-0.0246	Very weak negative relationship
P-value	0.8973	Not statistically significant

• Conclusion: Whale transactions showed no meaningful short-term effect on ARB price movement during the 30-day period analyzed.

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🚀 How to Run the Project

1. Clone the repository .