Shell Scenario Panel

A Claude Code-powered Shell-style scenario planning system with multi-specialist consultation, worldview integration, and rigorous documentation enforcement.

Overview

This is a structured scenario planning tool based on the Shell methodology, featuring:

• Dr. Michelle Wells (Moderator) - Facilitates 8-phase scenario development process
• Worldview Elicitation - Understands how you think about the topic before exploring scenarios
• 6 Domain Specialist Consultants - Diverse expert perspectives (ecology, geopolitics, culture, technology, economics, contrarian)
• Dr. Anya Petrov (Research Specialist) - Multi-source research and fact-checking
• Dr. Mei Chen (Quality Analyst) - Automated quality gates prevent regression to generic analysis
• Worldview Integration - Connects scenarios back to your mental model
• Automated Quality Enforcement - Hooks trigger quality gates, ensure intellectual integrity

The "Lens-World-Lens" Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  PHASE 0: WORLDVIEW ELICITATION                                │
│  Understand how you think about this topic                     │
│  OUTPUT: worldview_model.md                                    │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
                              │
                              ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  PHASES 1-6: EXTERNAL SCENARIO PLANNING                        │
│  Focal question → Predetermined → Uncertainties → Scenarios    │
│  OUTPUT: 4 divergent scenarios                                 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
                              │
                              ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  PHASE 7: WORLDVIEW INTEGRATION                                │
│  Connect scenarios to your mental model                        │
│  OUTPUT: worldview_integration.md                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Quick Start

1. Prerequisites

Required: Perplexity CLI (pp-cli)

npm install -g @dbmcco/pp-cli
pp --version

Required: worldview-elicitor skill

The worldview-elicitor skill must be available in your Claude Code environment. See Skills Setup below.

2. Clone and Start Claude Code

git clone https://github.com/dbmcco/shell-scenario-panel.git
cd shell-scenario-panel
# Start Claude Code conversation

3. Tell Dr. Wells What You Want to Explore

Just describe your scenario planning needs:

"I need to develop scenarios for the future of AI regulation."

or

"Let's explore future scenarios for renewable energy infrastructure."

4. Dr. Wells Handles Everything

She will:

1. Initialize the scenario automatically
2. Elicit your worldview - understand how you think about this topic
3. Guide you through the 8-phase process
4. Consult specialists as needed
5. Integrate scenarios with your worldview - connect findings to your mental model
6. Ensure quality and documentation

You never need to run scripts manually. Dr. Wells manages the technical details.

The 8-Phase Process

Phase 0: Worldview Elicitation (NEW)

Purpose: Understand how you think about the topic before exploring external scenarios.

Process:

1. Dr. Wells invokes the worldview-elicitor skill
2. Natural conversation to surface your beliefs, reasoning, and uncertainties
3. Captures what would change your mind (cruxes)
4. Documents your mental models and frameworks

Output: worldview_model.md

Also captured: phase_0_discovery/internal_baseline.md (structured base case and risk posture)

Why this matters:

• Scenarios become more relevant (we know what lens you're looking through)
• Helps identify blind spots (where your worldview differs from scenario implications)
• Creates better buy-in (scenarios framed in your language/concepts)
• Reveals which scenarios you'll naturally resist or accept

---

Phase 1: Understand the Focal Question

Clarify decision context, time horizon, scope, and assumptions

Phase 2: Identify Predetermined Elements

Map trends already in motion (demographics, infrastructure, debt, climate)

Phase 3: Identify Critical Uncertainties

Surface factors that could go multiple ways and matter for decisions

Phase 4: Develop Scenario Narratives

Create 4 plausible, divergent future scenarios with memorable names

Phase 5: Identify Early Warning Signals

Define observable indicators for each scenario

Phase 6: Test Strategies

Explore strategy performance across scenarios, identify robust approaches

---

Phase 7: Worldview Integration (NEW)

Purpose: Connect scenarios back to your mental model and prepare you for multiple futures.

Process:

1. Belief-by-belief analysis - Shows how each of your beliefs fares across all 4 scenarios
2. Specialist reactions - Domain experts comment on where your worldview might be missing something
3. Crux-to-scenario mapping - Shows how your uncertainties map to scenario boundaries
4. Personalized early warnings - Signals that would confirm or challenge your current view
5. Reflection - Exploratory conversation about what shifted in your thinking

Output: worldview_integration.md

This is not persuasion. The goal is helping you see how different futures connect to your existing understanding.

---

Specialist Team

Each specialist brings unique perspective and characteristic blind spots:

Specialist	Focus Area	Strengths
Elena Vasquez	Systems Ecology	Feedback loops, interdependencies, resilience
Marcus Chen	Geopolitics	Power dynamics, resources, state interests
Aisha Okonkwo	Cultural Anthropology	Values, meaning-making, lived experience
Kenji Tanaka	Technology Futures	Capability thresholds, platform shifts, S-curves
Sarah Blackwood	Economics	Debt dynamics, financial structures, regime shifts
Jamie O'Sullivan	Contrarian Provocateur	Hidden risks, fragilities, challenging assumptions

Architecture

Directory Structure

shell-scenario-panel/
├── .claude/
│   ├── config.json                  # Project configuration
│   ├── settings.local.json          # Tool permissions
│   ├── hooks/                       # Quality enforcement
│   ├── scenario-init.sh             # Create new scenario
│   ├── list-scenarios.sh            # View all scenarios
│   ├── validate-scenario.sh         # Validate scenario completeness
│   └── archive-scenario.sh          # Archive completed work
├── scenarios/
│   ├── active/                      # Current scenario planning
│   └── archived/                    # Completed scenarios
├── prompts/
│   ├── moderator.md                 # Dr. Michelle Wells
│   └── specialists/                 # 6 domain specialists
├── skills/                          # Bundled Claude Code skills
│   └── worldview-elicitor/          # Phase 0 elicitation skill
├── templates/                       # Scenario document templates
│   ├── worldview_model.md           # Phase 0 template
│   ├── worldview_integration.md     # Phase 7 template
│   ├── focal_question.md
│   └── [other templates...]
└── CLAUDE.md                        # Facilitator instructions

Scenario Output Structure

Each scenario produces:

scenarios/active/SCENARIO-YYYY-NNN/
├── metadata.json                    # Tracking and status
├── worldview_model.md               # Phase 0: Your mental model
├── scenario_context.md              # User feedback accumulation
├── focal_question.md                # Phase 1: Decision context
├── predetermined_elements.md        # Phase 2: Locked-in trends
├── critical_uncertainties.md        # Phase 3: Key uncertainties
├── scenarios/                       # Phase 4: Future narratives
│   ├── scenario_1_[name].md
│   ├── scenario_2_[name].md
│   ├── scenario_3_[name].md
│   └── scenario_4_[name].md
├── strategy_analysis.md             # Phase 6: Strategy testing
├── worldview_integration.md         # Phase 7: Connected to your model
├── conversations/                   # Specialist transcripts
│   ├── ecologist_round1_full.md
│   ├── economist_round1_full.md
│   ├── contrarian_worldview_reaction.md  # Phase 7
│   └── [etc...]
└── artifacts/                       # Supporting files

Skills Setup

worldview-elicitor Skill

The worldview-elicitor skill is required for Phase 0. It is bundled with this repository.

Installation:

# From the shell-scenario-panel directory
mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills
ln -s "$(pwd)/skills/worldview-elicitor" ~/.claude/skills/worldview-elicitor

Verification:

ls ~/.claude/skills/worldview-elicitor/
# Should show: skill.md

See skills/README.md for more details.

Key Features

Worldview-Centric Design

The system is built around understanding YOUR perspective:

• Phase 0 captures how you think before showing you anything
• Phases 1-6 explore the external world objectively
• Phase 7 translates findings back through your lens

This means scenarios are:

• More personally relevant
• Framed in language you understand
• Connected to your existing mental models
• Explicit about where they confirm or challenge your view

Model-Mediated Guardrails

The system keeps reflection explicit while forcing constructive opposition:

• Calibration: user familiarity + facilitation stance (mirror / hybrid / analytic)
• Not-knowing diagnostic: actions, outcomes, causation, value, with tool matching
• Mirror / Opposition / Synthesis: preserve input reflection and stress-test it
• Provenance logging: new inputs tracked as claims with confidence and falsifiers
• Progressive disclosure: plain-language summary first, optional technical notes second

See docs/model-guardrails-proposal.html for the full guardrail rationale and implementation map.

Transcript Enforcement

Moderator (Dr. Wells) enforces transcripts - hooks provide reminders only.

Multi-layer approach:

1. Specialist prompts with explicit transcript requirements
2. Moderator verifies transcript after each consultation
3. Post-task hooks remind of responsibilities
4. Metadata records all consultations with transcript paths

Quality Gates

Automated quality analysis at key checkpoints:

• Phase 2 completion
• Phase 3 completion
• Phase 4 completion
• Executive Summary

Quality Analyst evaluates intellectual integrity and prevents regression to generic analysis.

Scenario Management

# Initialize new scenario
.claude/scenario-init.sh

# List all scenarios
.claude/list-scenarios.sh

# Validate scenario completeness
.claude/validate-scenario.sh SCENARIO-2025-001

# Archive completed scenario
.claude/archive-scenario.sh SCENARIO-2025-001

Philosophy

Scenarios are not predictions. They are:

• Plausible - Internally consistent and grounded in reality
• Challenging - Stretch thinking beyond comfortable assumptions
• Relevant - Illuminate decisions that need to be made
• Divergent - Explore genuinely different futures
• Memorable - People can recall and reason with them
• Personal - Connected to your worldview, not generic

Worldview integration is not persuasion. It's helping you see how different futures connect to your existing understanding.

The goal is preparing minds for multiple futures, identifying robust strategies, and making better decisions under uncertainty.

Usage Tips

1. Be honest in Phase 0 - The more accurately we capture your worldview, the better the integration
2. Embrace uncertainty - Saying "I don't know" is valuable information
3. Notice resistance - Scenarios that feel implausible may reveal blind spots
4. Watch your cruxes - The early warning signals for your specific uncertainties are most valuable
5. Reflect genuinely - Phase 7 reflection is for you, not for us

Export to Keynote Slides

Convert your scenario planning outputs into a presentation deck using the keynote-slides skill.

Export the brief

.claude/export-deck-brief.sh SCENARIO-2025-001

This consolidates: focal question, predetermined elements, critical uncertainties, all four scenarios, early warning signals, strategy analysis, and key specialist insights.

Copy to your deck

# Create a new deck
cd ../keynote-slides-skill
scripts/new-deck.sh futures-deck --entity acme --title "Strategic Futures" --type strategy

# Copy the brief as materials
cp ../ai-simulations/shell-scenario-panel/scenarios/active/SCENARIO-2025-001/deck-brief.md \
   decks/futures-deck/resources/materials/

The narrative engine will help match your scenarios to storytelling frameworks like "Time Machine" (future vision) or "Rashomon" (multiple perspectives).

---

Based On

This system adapts:

• Shell Methodology - Classic scenario planning approach from Pierre Wack and Ted Newland
• Worldview Elicitation - Techniques from forecasting and calibration training
• Lens-World-Lens Architecture - Novel integration of internal models with external scenarios

---

Ready to explore multiple futures? Initialize a scenario and begin.