Floor baselines: zero-time + empty-dfg — multi-entry on 3 boards#15
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protosphinx wants to merge 2 commits into
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Floor baselines: zero-time + empty-dfg — multi-entry on 3 boards#15protosphinx wants to merge 2 commits into
protosphinx wants to merge 2 commits into
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- pm_bench/baselines/zero_time.py: predicts 0 days for every prefix (absolute MAE floor) - discover --baseline empty: submits an empty DFG (fitness 0, F 0 — absolute conformance floor) - CLI: predict --baseline zero --task remaining-time wired alongside mean; discover --baseline empty wired alongside dfg - New leaderboard entries: * remaining-time/synthetic-toy: zero-ref MAE 2.7410 vs mean-ref 1.3481 * conformance/synthetic-toy: empty-ref F 0.0 vs dfg-ref F 1.0 - 3 of 5 boards now have 2 entries (next-event already had uniform-ref from the previous PR; outcome and bottleneck still single-entry pending future submissions) - STANDINGS.md regenerated; 117 tests, ruff clean
Sweep across STATUS.md, baselines (uniform, zero_time), stats.py, cli.py, and the leaderboard JSON fixtures. ASCII-only punctuation. Tests pass unchanged (117); ruff clean.
This was referenced May 1, 2026
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Merged into main as part of the audit-cleanup stack (commit 9c00b47). The full content of this PR is now on main. |
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Stacked on top of #14 (uniform-baseline). Merge order: ... → #13 → #14 → this.
Summary
zero-timefor remaining-time — predicts 0 days for every prefix.emptyfor conformance (adiscovermode) — submits a model with no transitions.What's new
pm_bench/baselines/zero_time.py—predict_zero_time(targets)returns aTimePredictionwithpredicted_days=0.0for every target. ~10 lines.predict --baseline zero --task remaining-timewired through CLI alongsidemean.discover --baseline emptywrites an empty DFG ({"transitions": []}). Submitting it scores fitness=0, precision=0, F=0 — the absolute conformance floor.remaining-time:zero-refMAE 2.7410 (vsmean-ref1.3481 — zero loses by ~2x)conformance:empty-refF 0.0 (vsdfg-refF 1.0)Why
Test plan
pytest -q— 117 passed (unchanged; no new tests, the existing multi-entry-sort test already covers the principle on next-event)ruff check pm_bench tests— cleanpm-bench leaderboard --all --verify— 5/5 boards OK; 3 boards now show 2 entriesRoadmap impact