Note: Consider this as an ongoing project for future purposes. Not intended to be published in its actual state.
Based on the insights from "Macro Trends and Factor Timing" (Favero & al, 2022), we seek to create a factor timing equity trading strategy based on the cointegration logic between factor returns and macroeconomic variables. First, we replicate the article in the exact same conditions as is presented. Then, we modify the framework to include the strongest predictors of excess.
As these predictors are deemed to be extremely strong, we suggest that any improvement in timing their returns can lead to a strategy with sizeable gains over the traditional benchmarks. We also suggest that as the OOS R2 that is presented in the article is very interesting, such a Factor Timing strategy lends itself to credible asset allocation.
Johansen, Søren. "Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models." Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society (1991): 1551-1580.
Favero, Carlo A., Alessandro Melone, and Andrea Tamoni. "Macro trends and factor timing." Available at SSRN 3940452 (2021).