Reliability calibration

[NathanielF]

Reliability and Predictive Distributions

This will be an example notebook demonstrating the techniques of survival analysis used in reliability context with a focus on the predictive distribution and calibrated prediction intervals from a Bayesian and MLE perspective. Relates to issue: #474
#474

• Notebook follows style guide https://docs.pymc.io/en/latest/contributing/jupyter_style.html
• PR description contains a link to the relevant issue:
  • a tracker one for existing notebooks (tracker issues have the "tracker id" label)
  • or a proposal one for new notebooks
• Check the notebook is not excluded from any pre-commit check: https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-examples/blob/main/.pre-commit-config.yaml

Adding this draft version here, because i'm having a little trouble with the Bayesian model fits to the censored data and wanted to show my example attempts.

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