USMNT Octagon

CONCACAF has entered the Octagon, and I wanted to see which teams have had the hardest/easiest schedules so far and who has performed best relative to expectations. What follows is super basic (you can find my exploratory analysis code in inst/octagon.R). I would love to do this analysis on xG instead of observed goals, please let me know if you have that data for all the games!

• Who Played Whom and Results
• Strength of Schedule
• Real Basic Result-Only Rankings
• Big Ugly Table

Who Played Whom and Results

With 8 teams each playing 6 games so far, it’s hard to understand everything that has happened so far looking at the traditional schedule/results format. Sometimes you just want to see who everyone has played and the scores. That’s what we’ve got here, with each game represented twice, with both the home team and away team in the Team column:

Date	Team	Opponent	Place	GF	GA	GD	Points
2021-09-02	Canada	Honduras	Home	1	1	0	1
2021-09-05	Canada	United States	Away	1	1	0	1
2021-09-08	Canada	El Salvador	Home	3	0	3	3
2021-10-07	Canada	Mexico	Away	1	1	0	1
2021-10-10	Canada	Jamaica	Away	0	0	0	1
2021-10-13	Canada	Panama	Home	4	1	3	3
2021-09-02	Costa Rica	Panama	Away	0	0	0	1
2021-09-05	Costa Rica	Mexico	Home	0	1	-1	0
2021-09-08	Costa Rica	Jamaica	Home	1	1	0	1
2021-10-07	Costa Rica	Honduras	Away	0	0	0	1
2021-10-10	Costa Rica	El Salvador	Home	2	1	1	3
2021-10-13	Costa Rica	United States	Away	1	2	-1	0
2021-09-02	El Salvador	United States	Home	0	0	0	1
2021-09-05	El Salvador	Honduras	Home	0	0	0	1
2021-09-08	El Salvador	Canada	Away	0	3	-3	0
2021-10-07	El Salvador	Panama	Home	1	0	1	3
2021-10-10	El Salvador	Costa Rica	Away	1	2	-1	0
2021-10-13	El Salvador	Mexico	Home	0	2	-2	0
2021-09-02	Honduras	Canada	Away	1	1	0	1
2021-09-05	Honduras	El Salvador	Away	0	0	0	1
2021-09-08	Honduras	United States	Home	1	4	-3	0
2021-10-07	Honduras	Costa Rica	Home	0	0	0	1
2021-10-10	Honduras	Mexico	Away	0	3	-3	0
2021-10-13	Honduras	Jamaica	Home	0	2	-2	0
2021-09-02	Jamaica	Mexico	Away	1	2	-1	0
2021-09-05	Jamaica	Panama	Home	0	3	-3	0
2021-09-08	Jamaica	Costa Rica	Away	1	1	0	1
2021-10-07	Jamaica	United States	Away	0	2	-2	0
2021-10-10	Jamaica	Canada	Home	0	0	0	1
2021-10-13	Jamaica	Honduras	Away	2	0	2	3
2021-09-02	Mexico	Jamaica	Home	2	1	1	3
2021-09-05	Mexico	Costa Rica	Away	1	0	1	3
2021-09-08	Mexico	Panama	Away	1	1	0	1
2021-10-07	Mexico	Canada	Home	1	1	0	1
2021-10-10	Mexico	Honduras	Home	3	0	3	3
2021-10-13	Mexico	El Salvador	Away	2	0	2	3
2021-09-02	Panama	Costa Rica	Home	0	0	0	1
2021-09-05	Panama	Jamaica	Away	3	0	3	3
2021-09-08	Panama	Mexico	Home	1	1	0	1
2021-10-07	Panama	El Salvador	Away	0	1	-1	0
2021-10-10	Panama	United States	Home	1	0	1	3
2021-10-13	Panama	Canada	Away	1	4	-3	0
2021-09-02	United States	El Salvador	Away	0	0	0	1
2021-09-05	United States	Canada	Home	1	1	0	1
2021-09-08	United States	Honduras	Away	4	1	3	3
2021-10-07	United States	Jamaica	Home	2	0	2	3
2021-10-10	United States	Panama	Away	0	1	-1	0
2021-10-13	United States	Costa Rica	Home	2	1	1	3

Strength of Schedule

To figure out who has played the hardest slate so far, I look at how a team’s opponents fared in their other games and how the team then performed relative to that. This does not yet account for number of home/away matches by each nation. Here you can see each team and their opponents average goals for and against in other games:

Team	Opp Avg GF	Opp Avg GA	Opp Avg GD	Points
Panama	1.10	0.83	0.27	8
Jamaica	1.10	0.93	0.17	5
El Salvador	1.13	1.00	0.13	5
Canada	0.97	0.93	0.03	10
Honduras	0.97	0.97	0.00	3
Mexico	0.83	1.00	-0.17	14
Costa Rica	0.93	1.13	-0.20	6
United States	0.80	1.03	-0.23	11

Panama has played the hardest schedule with only Honduras remaining before the second set of games. The US has the easiest schedule as they have not yet played Mexico.

Real Basic Result-Only Rankings

Team	Opp Avg GF	Opp Avg GA	Opp Avg GD	GF above Opp Avg	GA below Opp Avg	GD above Avg	Points
Canada	0.97	0.93	0.03	0.73	0.30	1.03	10
Mexico	0.83	1.00	-0.17	0.67	0.33	1.00	14
United States	0.80	1.03	-0.23	0.47	0.13	0.60	11
Panama	1.10	0.83	0.27	0.17	0.10	0.27	8
Costa Rica	0.93	1.13	-0.20	-0.47	0.10	-0.37	6
Jamaica	1.10	0.93	0.17	-0.27	-0.23	-0.50	5
El Salvador	1.13	1.00	0.13	-0.67	-0.03	-0.70	5
Honduras	0.97	0.97	0.00	-0.63	-0.70	-1.33	3

Canada and Mexico are virtually tied at the top of the table after Canada’s big win over Panama, which was the largest over expectation of any match to date. El Salvador has plummeted from top 4 to bottom 2 in the last three games.

Big Ugly Table

Here’s a big ugly table with all of the stats for all of the games, if you’re interested:

Date	Team	Opponent	Place	GF	GA	GD	Opp Avg GF	Opp Avg GA	Opp Avg GD	GF above Opp Avg	GA below Opp Avg	GD above Avg	Points
2021-09-02	Canada	Honduras	Home	1	1	0	0.2	1.8	-1.6	-0.8	-0.8	-1.6	1
2021-09-05	Canada	United States	Away	1	1	0	1.6	0.6	1.0	0.4	0.6	1.0	1
2021-09-08	Canada	El Salvador	Home	3	0	3	0.4	0.8	-0.4	2.2	0.4	2.6	3
2021-10-07	Canada	Mexico	Away	1	1	0	1.8	0.4	1.4	0.6	0.8	1.4	1
2021-10-10	Canada	Jamaica	Away	0	0	0	0.8	1.6	-0.8	-1.6	0.8	-0.8	1
2021-10-13	Canada	Panama	Home	4	1	3	1.0	0.4	0.6	3.6	0.0	3.6	3
2021-09-02	Costa Rica	Panama	Away	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	0.0	-1.2	1.2	0.0	1
2021-09-05	Costa Rica	Mexico	Home	0	1	-1	1.8	0.6	1.2	-0.6	0.8	0.2	0
2021-09-08	Costa Rica	Jamaica	Home	1	1	0	0.6	1.4	-0.8	-0.4	-0.4	-0.8	1
2021-10-07	Costa Rica	Honduras	Away	0	0	0	0.4	2.0	-1.6	-2.0	0.4	-1.6	1
2021-10-10	Costa Rica	El Salvador	Home	2	1	1	0.2	1.0	-0.8	1.0	-0.8	0.2	3
2021-10-13	Costa Rica	United States	Away	1	2	-1	1.4	0.6	0.8	0.4	-0.6	-0.2	0
2021-09-02	El Salvador	United States	Home	0	0	0	1.8	0.8	1.0	-0.8	1.8	1.0	1
2021-09-05	El Salvador	Honduras	Home	0	0	0	0.4	2.0	-1.6	-2.0	0.4	-1.6	1
2021-09-08	El Salvador	Canada	Away	0	3	-3	1.4	0.8	0.6	-0.8	-1.6	-2.4	0
2021-10-07	El Salvador	Panama	Home	1	0	1	1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0	1.2	1.2	3
2021-10-10	El Salvador	Costa Rica	Away	1	2	-1	0.4	0.8	-0.4	0.2	-1.6	-1.4	0
2021-10-13	El Salvador	Mexico	Home	0	2	-2	1.6	0.6	1.0	-0.6	-0.4	-1.0	0
2021-09-02	Honduras	Canada	Away	1	1	0	1.8	0.6	1.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	1
2021-09-05	Honduras	El Salvador	Away	0	0	0	0.4	1.4	-1.0	-1.4	0.4	-1.0	1
2021-09-08	Honduras	United States	Home	1	4	-3	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.4	-3.0	-2.6	0
2021-10-07	Honduras	Costa Rica	Home	0	0	0	0.8	1.0	-0.2	-1.0	0.8	-0.2	1
2021-10-10	Honduras	Mexico	Away	0	3	-3	1.4	0.6	0.8	-0.6	-1.6	-2.2	0
2021-10-13	Honduras	Jamaica	Home	0	2	-2	0.4	1.6	-1.2	-1.6	-1.6	-3.2	0
2021-09-02	Jamaica	Mexico	Away	1	2	-1	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.6	-0.4	0.2	0
2021-09-05	Jamaica	Panama	Home	0	3	-3	0.6	1.2	-0.6	-1.2	-2.4	-3.6	0
2021-09-08	Jamaica	Costa Rica	Away	1	1	0	0.6	0.8	-0.2	0.2	-0.4	-0.2	1
2021-10-07	Jamaica	United States	Away	0	2	-2	1.4	0.8	0.6	-0.8	-0.6	-1.4	0
2021-10-10	Jamaica	Canada	Home	0	0	0	2.0	0.8	1.2	-0.8	2.0	1.2	1
2021-10-13	Jamaica	Honduras	Away	2	0	2	0.4	1.6	-1.2	0.4	0.4	0.8	3
2021-09-02	Mexico	Jamaica	Home	2	1	1	0.6	1.2	-0.6	0.8	-0.4	0.4	3
2021-09-05	Mexico	Costa Rica	Away	1	0	1	0.8	0.8	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	3
2021-09-08	Mexico	Panama	Away	1	1	0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1
2021-10-07	Mexico	Canada	Home	1	1	0	1.8	0.6	1.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	1
2021-10-10	Mexico	Honduras	Home	3	0	3	0.4	1.4	-1.0	1.6	0.4	2.0	3
2021-10-13	Mexico	El Salvador	Away	2	0	2	0.4	1.0	-0.6	1.0	0.4	1.4	3
2021-09-02	Panama	Costa Rica	Home	0	0	0	0.8	1.0	-0.2	-1.0	0.8	-0.2	1
2021-09-05	Panama	Jamaica	Away	3	0	3	0.8	1.0	-0.2	2.0	0.8	2.8	3
2021-09-08	Panama	Mexico	Home	1	1	0	1.8	0.4	1.4	0.6	0.8	1.4	1
2021-10-07	Panama	El Salvador	Away	0	1	-1	0.2	1.4	-1.2	-1.4	-0.8	-2.2	0
2021-10-10	Panama	United States	Home	1	0	1	1.8	0.6	1.2	0.4	1.8	2.2	3
2021-10-13	Panama	Canada	Away	1	4	-3	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.4	-2.8	-2.4	0
2021-09-02	United States	El Salvador	Away	0	0	0	0.4	1.4	-1.0	-1.4	0.4	-1.0	1
2021-09-05	United States	Canada	Home	1	1	0	1.8	0.6	1.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	1
2021-09-08	United States	Honduras	Away	4	1	3	0.2	1.2	-1.0	2.8	-0.8	2.0	3
2021-10-07	United States	Jamaica	Home	2	0	2	0.8	1.2	-0.4	0.8	0.8	1.6	3
2021-10-10	United States	Panama	Away	0	1	-1	1.0	1.2	-0.2	-1.2	0.0	-1.2	0
2021-10-13	United States	Costa Rica	Home	2	1	1	0.6	0.6	0.0	1.4	-0.4	1.0	3

I’ll try to make these all sortable in the future.